Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on Nigeria’s crude oil exports

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has disclosed the significant impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Nigeria’s crude oil inflows in the international oil market. This ongoing conflict has resulted in a decrease in demand from the Asian market, particularly in the early stages of the hostilities in the Eastern bloc.

Maryamu Idris, the Executive Director of Crude & Condensate at NNPC Trading Limited, explained during a panel presentation at the Argus European Crude Conference in London that the conflict has disrupted the flow of Nigerian crude to the international market. India, a key destination for Nigerian crude, has shown increased interest in discounted Russian oil, reducing its demand for Nigerian volumes.

Idris highlighted the shift in exports, noting that Nigeria’s crude exports to India dropped from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the six months before the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to 194,000 bpd in the subsequent six months. So far this year, only around 120,000 bpd of Nigerian crude has reached India.

Conversely, Nigerian crude oil exports to Europe have increased to compensate for the supply gaps left by the ban on Russian crude. Prior to the conflict, 678,000 bpd of Nigerian crude grades were exported to Europe, and this figure grew to 710,000 bpd six months later and 730,000 bpd so far this year.

The trend suggests that Nigerian crude grades have become a significant part of the post-war preferences of European refiners. Several Nigerian distillate-rich grades, including Forcados Blend, Escravos Light, Bonga, and Egina, have become preferred choices for European refiners. The addition of Nembe Crude further strengthens Nigeria’s position in the European market.

This shift in demand and export destinations reflects the evolving dynamics in the global oil market due to geopolitical conflicts, impacting Nigeria’s crude oil trade.